Editor's Foreword — TCL Sports Desk
The Canadian Loyalist is an independent, conservative Canadian publication. Playoff probability data in this article is sourced from PlayoffStatus.com (as of February 22nd, 2026, Week 21 of 28 in the NHL regular season). All “games needed” calculations are TCL’s own, based on current points totals, games remaining, and estimated wildcard cutoffs. This is a sports analysis and opinion piece.
TCL Sports Desk
The NHL Olympic break is over. The standings are where they are. And for most of Canada's seven franchises, the standings are not good.
Before we get to the state of our teams — and we will get there, with full honesty — here's the league-wide picture. These are the teams with a legitimate mathematical claim to Lord Stanley's mug, sourced from PlayoffStatus.com's current post-season probability model.
The Contenders
1. Colorado Avalanche — 22% Stanley Cup odds Record: 37-9-9 | 83 points | Western Conference leaders
Colorado is the team nobody outside of Denver wants to talk about and everybody inside the analytics community has been watching for three months. Thirty-seven wins. Nine losses in regulation. That's a .711 points percentage — the best in the league. PlayoffStatus gives them a 79% chance of reaching the Conference Championship and a 50% shot at the Cup Final. They have locked up their division. They are, by every available metric, the team to beat.
Nathan MacKinnon — who just got back from winning Olympic silver with Canada (who wasn’t exactly pleased receiving a plushy instead of a gold medal) — returns to a team that won without him and is about to get significantly more dangerous with him back in the lineup. That's a problem for everyone else in the Western Conference.
2. Tampa Bay Lightning — 17% Stanley Cup odds Record: 37-14-4 | 78 points | Atlantic Division leaders
Tampa is the Eastern favourite and has been all season. Seventeen percent Cup odds doesn't sound like much until you look at the rest of the field and realize the numbers thin out quickly. The Lightning have the experience — multiple deep runs, a championship culture — and Andrei Vasilevskiy has been among the best goaltenders in the league this season. They control the Atlantic. Their path is as clean as anyone's.
3. Carolina Hurricanes — 11% Stanley Cup odds Record: 36-15-6 | 78 points
Carolina has won 36 games and is sitting at 78 points, identical to Tampa, but their division seeding puts them in the second spot. The Hurricanes are exactly the kind of structured, defensively responsible team that gives offence-first squads fits in a seven-game series. They're not flashy. They're also not going away.
4. Dallas Stars — 7% Stanley Cup odds Record: 34-14-9 | 77 points
Dallas is quietly excellent and perpetually underrated in national conversation. They play hard, they play complete, and their forward depth is one of the best in the Western Conference. Seven percent feels low for a team this well-constructed, but the Western bracket is brutal and Colorado sits directly in their path.
5. Minnesota Wild — 5% Stanley Cup odds Record: 34-14-10 | 78 points
The Wild are legitimate and Canadian fans should acknowledge it. Kirill Kaprizov is one of the five most dangerous offensive players in the league, their blue line is deep, and they've quietly built a points total that would be a division winner in the East. Five percent is where the model puts them given the conference competition. That's not a slight — it's just a tough conference.
The Math: What Canadian Teams Actually Need
The NHL regular season has 82 games per team. A team earns 2 points for a regulation or overtime win, 1 point for an overtime loss. The current Eastern wildcard picture has the bubble sitting at roughly 69-70 points with 24-25 games remaining for most teams in the race. Here is exactly where Canada's seven franchises stand.
🔴 Montreal Canadiens — Best Hope in the Country
Record: 32-17-8 | 72 points | 83% to make playoffs | 4% Cup odds | Games remaining: 25 | Max possible points: 122
Montreal is the only Canadian team with a genuine, non-embarrassing shot at the post-season. Seventy-two points puts them ahead of the current Eastern wildcard bubble. The model gives them an 83% chance of qualifying, which reflects their current position of relative control.
The math: The Canadiens need roughly 12-14 more wins from their remaining 25 games to feel comfortable. That's a .480-.560 winning clip — not spectacular, but very achievable for a team that has played .653 hockey to this point. If they go 13-10-2 the rest of the way, they're in. That means Montreal needs to win more than half their remaining games, lose fewer than ten in regulation, and not do anything catastrophically stupid in the trade deadline. Achievable. Nick Suzuki comes back from Milano energized and should be their best player down the stretch.
The honest take: Montreal making the playoffs this year would be an overachievement from a team that wasn't supposed to be in this conversation. Whether that's good news or bad news for the rebuild depends on your perspective. But it's real, and they've earned the right to compete for it.
🟠 Edmonton Oilers — McDavid Needs a Miracle
Record: 28-22-8 | 64 points | 57% to make playoffs | 1% Cup odds | Games remaining: 24 | Max possible points: 112
The Oilers are a .564 team that has played like a .500 team in the wrong moments. Their 57% playoff probability is deceptively optimistic — the model accounts for their remaining schedule, which includes several Pacific Division games against direct competitors. The Pacific wildcard race is genuinely crowded and Edmonton is not currently in a spot.
The math: Edmonton sits at 64 points with 24 games left. The last wildcard spot in the West is currently projected around 92-95 points by season's end. The Oilers need approximately 28-31 more points from 24 games — meaning they need to go roughly 14-8-2 or better the rest of the way. That is a 70% win rate. Connor McDavid returned from the Olympics having just set the NHL-era record for Olympic points. Whether that energy translates immediately into a Western Conference push, or whether the team around him once again falls short of what the top end of the roster demands, is the defining question of the 2026 Oilers season. They have the talent. They are running out of games.
🔴 Ottawa Senators — The Long Shot With a Pulse
Record: 28-22-7 | 63 points | 19% to make playoffs | 1% Cup odds | Games remaining: 25 | Max possible points: 113
Nineteen percent is a hard number to feel good about. It's also not zero, which is more than four other Canadian teams can say. Ottawa has played inconsistent hockey all season, but Brady Tkachuk — back from the Olympics where he buried Canada's Olympic dreams in overtime, a fact Ottawa fans are perhaps uniquely equipped to process — is a genuine difference-maker and their forward group has enough to be competitive on a given night.
The math: Ottawa needs roughly 30 points from their final 25 games to have a realistic shot at a wildcard spot. That's 15 wins in 25 games — a 60% win rate for a team that has won 54% of its games this season. It requires running above their seasonal average for the next two months. It's possible. It requires almost everything to go right. The Senators have shown flashes all year. The question is whether they can string those flashes together for eight consecutive weeks.
🔵 Toronto Maple Leafs — Playoff Hockey? Not This Year.
Record: 27-21-9 | 63 points | 12% to make playoffs | ~1% Cup odds | Games remaining: 25 | Max possible points: 113
Same points as Ottawa, lower playoff probability — because Toronto's divisional position is marginally worse and the Eastern wildcard path they need runs through teams that are currently playing better hockey. Twelve percent is not "mathematically eliminated." It is, for all practical purposes, "planning for next year."
The math: The Leafs need roughly 30 points from 25 games, same math as Ottawa. But the Leafs are also running out of goodwill with a fanbase that has been patient for longer than patience reasonably should last. Mitch Marner comes home from the Olympics. The questions about this core group, this front office, and this franchise's ability to build a genuine contender are going to get very loud very quickly if the next four weeks look like the last four months. Twelve percent means there is almost certainly an off-season reckoning coming. The only real question is how big.
🟡 Winnipeg Jets — Pack the Golf Clubs
Record: 22-26-8 | 52 points | 3% to make playoffs | <1% Cup odds | Games remaining: ~26 | Max possible points: 104
Three percent. The model is being generous. Winnipeg would need to go approximately 20-5-1 the rest of the way to reach a viable points total, which is not a thing that is going to happen. Connor Hellebuyck will be one of the most discussed players this off-season — an elite goaltender on a sinking team, with one year remaining on his contract, whose name will appear in every trade rumour column from March through June. That conversation is more interesting than anything Winnipeg is going to do in the standings between now and April.
🔴 Calgary Flames — Same Story, Different Year
Record: 23-27-6 | 52 points | 2% to make playoffs | <1% Cup odds | Games remaining: ~26 | Max possible points: 104
Two percent. Calgary would need approximately the same miracle run as Winnipeg, with less goaltending to lean on. The rebuild is real and there are pieces here worth watching develop. This is not a 2026 playoff conversation. File it under "next year, hopefully."
⚫ Vancouver Canucks — The Floor Has a Basement
Record: 18-33-6 | 42 points | <1% to make playoffs | <1% Cup odds | Games remaining: ~27 | Max possible points: 96
Eighteen wins. Thirty-three losses. In regulation. There is no math that saves this season. Vancouver came into 2025-26 with genuine expectations — expectations built on the previous season's momentum — and collapsed in a manner that will require serious organizational examination this summer. They are last in the Western Conference. They are going to get a very good draft pick. That is the most honest thing that can be said about the 2025-26 Vancouver Canucks.
The country that outshot the Americans 41-26 in an Olympic final deserves better from its NHL franchises. Most of them know it, and most of them have no answer for it. Colorado — will most likely — lift the Cup. The only question left worth asking is whether a single Canadian team makes it far enough to matter; and right now, only Montreal is even asking the question seriously. The rest are already on summer ice.