TCL Sports Desk · FIFA World Cup
A historic humiliation for the Azzurri.
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April 01, 2026 · Vaughan, Ontario
In a result that sent shockwaves through the footballing world, four-time champions Italy will miss out on a third consecutive World Cup after losing on penalties to Bosnia and Herzegovina in the European qualifying playoff for the 2026 edition. The drama unfolded Tuesday evening in Zenica, where Esmir Bajraktarević converted the winning penalty as Bosnia and Herzegovina came from behind to beat ten-player Italy and reach the World Cup finals.
Moise Kean clinically curled Italy ahead in the 15th minute, and for a time it appeared the Azzurri would finally exorcise the demons of back-to-back qualification failures. But the evening unravelled swiftly. Alessandro Bastoni saw red for a professional foul, denying the home side a clear goalscoring opportunity by chopping down Amar Memić; leaving Italy to defend for the better part of an hour with ten men against a Bosnian side that smelled blood.
Gianluigi Donnarumma denied a Demirović header with just three minutes remaining in normal time, but Haris Tabaković prodded in the rebound to send the tie to extra time. The Italians, exhausted and rattled, could not find a winner. When the penalties came, Bosnia secured the spot kicks 4-1, as the Italians crumpled under the pressure.
Italy are now the first former winners to fail to qualify for three consecutive World Cup finals. Their last win in the tournament was in 2006, when current manager Gennaro Gattuso was himself part of the national team. The cruelty of that irony was not lost on anyone watching. Meanwhile, Bosnia and Herzegovina join co-hosts Canada, Qatar and Switzerland in Group B at the 2026 FIFA World Cup — a remarkable achievement for a nation of modest footballing resources and enormous heart.
The celebrations in Zenica didn’t end with the final whistle. They spilled into the streets, where disbelief turned into pure national pride.
For Canadian fans, there is a particular interest here: the Dragons will face Bosnia in group play this summer on home soil — a mouth-watering prospect after this display of Bosnian resilience and penalty-taking nerve.
"Huge credit to the [Bosnian] team. This is a really special team. Two games like this, coming back twice [late on]. To play a game like this and create so many changes against Italy, I have no words. And at the end, to still stay composed and calm and take penalties like this… it was an incredible feeling. None of us can believe what [is] happening."1
The Canadian Loyalist Picks
There is no ambiguity here at the Canadian Loyalist. When the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off on June 11th on North American soil, our allegience is singular, unwavering, and unapoogetically patriotic for Canada — this is our tournament. These are our cities, our stadiums, and our fans. The Reds have been handed a faovurable group draw: sharing Group B with Switzerland, Qatar, and as of Tuesday evening, Bosnia and Herzegovina. This, without question, the greatest opportunity in Canadian soccer history.
That said, this is a 48-team tournament, and the spectacle demands deeper engagement. Beyond our boys in red, TCL has its eye on a select few sides we believe merit your attention — call them our teams of interest, the sides that may quietly make noise while the football world watches the usual suspects.
Bosnia and Herzegovina have already earned their place on this list — and, for some, in our hearts — after what they did to Italy on Tuesday night. For many Italian-Canadians, this is an unfortunate loss. Bosnia and Herzegovina are newly qualified, and their outright odds have not yet settled across major books. They enter the market as a long shot, likely to price in the +30,000–+50,000 range based on comparable newly-qualified sides, though their draw — Group B with Canada, Switzerland, and Qatar — is arguably the most navigable path to the knockout rounds of any late qualifier.
Portugal remain perennial underachievers on the tournament stage despite fielding squads that would make most nations weep with envy. With Ronaldo in what will be a historic sixth World Cup, the emotional stakes are enormous. Portugal is second in liability at BetMGM at the moment, meaning bettors are quietly piling on — and with good reason. Portugal arrive post-Ronaldo dependency and must now govern matches structurally rather than symbolically focusing on CR7, with their attacking authority now dispersed across multiple players. They are the sixth favourite to raise the trophy. Portugal sit at +1,100 at BetMGM, having opened at +1,400 — a meaningful compression that reflects sustained bettor interest. The implied probability on that line is approximately 8.3%, which feels conservative for a squad of their quality in a favourable group. Portugal are projected to top Group J alongside Colombia, with Uzbekistan as a dark horse.
Sweden are perhaps the most intriguing of TCL’s teams of interest. Viktor Gyökeres scored a hat-trick against Ukraine in the playoff semi-final, and Sweden still have Premier League pair Dejan Kulusevski and Alexander Isak to come back from injury. That is a terrifying attacking trident once fully assembled. Sweden could well be a dark horse at the World Cup considering those returning players. Sweden, now qualified after their penalty victory over Poland, are listed at +25,000 at DraftKings via NBC Sports — a number that almost certainly will compress significantly once Isak and Kulusevski return from injury and the market properly prices in Gyökeres's devastating form. That is precisely where value lives.
The Betting Board
Here is where sentiment ends and numbers begin. The markets across major sportsbooks tell a consistent, if unsurprising, story at the top — but the value lies in the margins.
Spain is the outright favourite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup at prediction markets with +519 odds, representing a 16.2% implied probability. England trades at +688 (12.7% implied) and France at +710 (12.3% implied). These figures are aggregated via volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP) across Kalshi and Polymarket. The sportsbook picture is broadly aligned: Spain sit at +450 at DraftKings, ahead of England at +550. FanDuel lists Spain at +450 with roughly an 18% implied probability, ahead of England at +550, France at +700, Brazil at +700, and defending champion Argentina at +800.
Spain, led by rising superstar Lamine Yamal, leads the pack with the shortest odds. They are followed by England, 2018 World Cup winner and 2022 runner-up France, and five-time winner Brazil.
It is worth noting that Spain sat as the +1000 sixth choice when futures first opened, with France and Brazil as +600 co-favourites. The draw in December reshuffled the board dramatically, sending Spain all the way to +400 at BetMGM. That movement, six months out, reflects genuine market conviction about Spain's squad depth and tactical identity.
Canada’s Odds
Let us be honest about where the market places our sides. Odds of 250/1 offer an implied probability of just 0.4% on Canada to win the World Cup. FanDuel lists Canada at +10,000, with all three host nations carrying long-shot odds as the tournament largely belongs to European and South American powerhouses. Per Covers, Canada sits at +15,000 at BetMGM, accounting for just 1.2% of bets and less than 0.5% of handle.
We print these numbers not to discourage, but because reality is the foundation of genuine hope. A group-stage exit is the market consensus. Proving that consensus wrong, on home soil, would be one of the great sporting stories in this country's history.
The True Dark Horses, by the Numbers
Beyond TCL's own picks, the markets have surfaced a few names worth tracking analytically. Ecuador, who went through all of CONMEBOL qualifying conceding only five goals, have moved from +10,000 to +6,600 at BetMGM: a sharp inward move driven by their defensive record and the emergence of talents like Moisés Caicedo. Argentina's odds sit at +800, reflecting roughly an 11% implied probability, with their greatest strength remaining tactical cohesion and the ability to perform in high-pressure matches.
The Canadian Loyalist is an independent, conservative publication. This article is based on reporting from FIFA, UEFA, TSN, Polymarket, BetMGM, Vegasinsider, and other official sports statements. All facts are drawn from publicly available sources.
THE CANADIAN LOYALIST
1 UEFA. (2026, March 31). Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1 Italy highlights (4-1 on pens): Hosts win 2026 World Cup play-off final shoot-out. UEFA.com; UEFA. https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/02a3-2047c06e29c6-0a8f1c84272a-1000--bosnia-and-herzegovina-1-1-italy-highlights-4-1-on-pens-host/